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What Causes the Gold Rate to Fluctuate?

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  | Published: 02 April 2020 | Last Updated On: 18 January 2021

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Over the years, gold has managed to stick to its position as a significant metal for centuries. However, that does not make it immune to fluctuations. Fluctuation in gold rates is a common trend across the world, changing almost daily. It is not shocking to see extremes when we talk about gold rates. Gold rates have seen a great degree of variation in the past, from reaching great highs to touching extreme lows.

It is normal for one to wonder what causes these gold rates to be this unstable, why hasn't gold become immune to these changes even after surviving the test of time? Here are some significant reasons that influence the gold price that any investor should understand.

Inflation

A common reason behind holding gold is to use as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. The value of a currency can fluctuate, but the value of gold in the long term might stay more stable. The reason is that gold is valued the world over. Gold is an attractive, solid, low-risk investment in between fluctuating currencies. This is why investors may feel the encouragement to buy gold while their paper currency fluctuates.

Global Crisis

Gold is referred to as a crisis commodity because the gold rate in UAE and for that matter anywhere in the world tend to rise when the people lack confidence in the financial market. Gold seems like a source of safety between all the geopolitical or economic tumult, which causes an impact on its prices in case of any world event.

Jewelry and Industry

Apart from the diverse uses, gold is majorly used in the jewelry and industry. In fact, a major portion of the demand for gold is from jewelry. For instance, in a country like India, gold is a display of one’s wealth, an essential wealth, and also a hedge against tough times. Such a demand causes the prices to rise up. Besides jewelry, gold demand also rises from industrial applications. It is used in electronic devices such as computers, GPS systems, and also medical devices.

Value of the Dollar

The US dollar continues to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is what makes it one of the main currencies held for international trade by various countries. The gold price in UAE among other places has an inverse relationship with the US dollar. When the dollar is strong, the gold prices are weaker, and vice versa.

Interest Rates

Gold does not pay any interest to the investor, however, the present gold rate in UAE along with other regions tends to reflect the increases and declines of interest rates. When interest rates rise, people may wish to sell gold in order to free up their funds for investing in other securities. Whereas if interest rates decline, the prices of gold may rise due to the low opportunity cost of holding gold as compared to other investments.

Instability of the Central Bank

Most countries have central banks and other dominant banks. Bank failures and the irregularity in economic policies make gold a safe investment in the eye of the public. People resort to gold when paper money seems uncertain. Some investors favor the physical security of holding gold through the time when there are deficits in the central banks. This leads to an increase in demand and thereby an increase in the value of gold.

Government Reserves

Central banks hold gold and currency in reserve. When these banks start buying gold in large quantities than they sell, the prices of gold tend to rise. The reason is that the currency supply increases and the gold available becomes scarce.

Production of Gold

Even though fresh production seems modest when compared to the supply, the production costs really affect the price of gold. A rise in production costs means that the miners sell the gold for a higher profit and these higher costs are reflected when it comes to the sale of gold in the form of coins, etc.

Demand and Supply

If you are planning to invest in gold, you should understand that the gold price in UAE and the rest of the world is impacted by factors such as production costs, jewelry and industry demand, economic and geopolitical stability, actions of the central bank, etc.

Gold is a finite resource and when economic conditions globally make it an attractive investment, the prices increase. But the value of gold tends to stay stable in the long term.